Feb 08, 2020 03:08 AM | Charlie Custer

When to buy and when to sell — these are the core questions with which every investor grapples. There are no hard-and-fast rules you can follow, but there are patterns to keep an eye out for. This is particularly true in crypto, where a variety of token metrics are available for correlation analysis with price.


One of the things that often (but not always) correlates with price is active addresses. When we took a look at the full histories of popular tokens last month, for example, we found that many of them showed a strong positive correlation between price and active address count. 


It’s not true for all tokens and it’s not true all the time, but the evidence suggests that generally the more active a crypto network is, the higher its token price is likely to be. That means that being able to predict when networks are most active is meaningful


For 17 popular ERC20 tokens, TokenAnalyst’s API provides a daily historical window into network activity via active addresses. So we looked at the full available history for all tokens to find out which days of the week have been most active for each token. 


We’ll start with the big picture in this chart that illustrates each token’s average daily active addresses in context. Some tokens like BAT and OMG have significantly more daily activity than others.


Artboard 1big-feat-img.png


It’s difficult to pull day-of-week patterns out of this, so let’s break it down further. First, this chart shows which days were the most active overall by showing how many tokens had each weekday as their highest average activity day. 


Artboard 1dow-totals.png


As you can see, active addresses tended to peak in the middle of the work week for most tokens, and Sunday was a relative dead zone — none of the 17 tokens tracked by TokenAnalyst had its most active average day of the week fall on Sunday. 


Every token is different, of course, so here’s a token-by-token breakdown of average active addresses on each day of the week, Monday through Sunday. If you’re interested in one or more of these tokens, this may give you an idea of when during the week activity is likely to be at its highest — which may correlate with higher token prices. 


You might, for example, choose to buy on days with the lowest average activity and sell on days with the highest average activity. Historically speaking, many tokens have shown enough price-to-activity correlation that such a strategy would work if you were buying and selling often enough. 


For example, based on the chart below, a BAT investor might aim to buy on Sundays, when activity is generally at its lowest, and sell on Tuesdays or Wednesdays when activity is at its highest. An OmiseGo investor might want to buy on Wednesdays, and sell on Thursdays. 


Of course, this strategy would not have worked for every trade — these charts show broad, historical patterns. There’s no way of knowing whether these trends will continue in the future. 


erc20-dow-charts-2.jpg


We certainly wouldn’t recommend purchasing based on day-of-week alone, but understanding regular patterns of activity level can be one of many meaningful factors in predicting what token prices are most likely to do.


If you have a good idea for a data story, please don’t hesitate to reach out! Please send pitches and tips to:

Email:[email protected]

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